By Q4 2026, fewer than 5% of Shopify merchants will have enabled Agentic Storefronts
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Commerce By: Pragma Research Team
Prediction Ledger
Specific, falsifiable technology predictions tracked with Brier-scored accountability. No hiding from wrong calls.
Every prediction here is specific and falsifiable with a resolution date. When the date arrives, it's graded publicly. No weasel words, no moving goalposts.
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20 analyst predictions, 0 model forecasts
Active predictions: 20
Resolved: 0
Resolving soon: 0
Predictions grounded in 2642 practitioner signals
MCP will have 10+ major platform implementations by end of 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Standards By: Pragma Research Team
Post-quantum signature adoption in production commerce systems will remain below 1% through 2027
Active Resolves: 2027-12-31
(624d left)
Security By: Pragma Research Team
Google UCP will achieve fewer than 100 production integrations by Q3 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-09-30
(167d left)
Standards By: Pragma Research Team
At least 3 major AI labs will adopt A2A protocol for inter-agent communication by mid-2027
Active Resolves: 2027-06-30
(440d left)
Standards By: Pragma Research Team
WebXR will not reach 50% Safari support by end of 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
Cloudflare Workers AI will surpass AWS Lambda for AI inference latency in at least 3 benchmark categories by Q4 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
The Bun runtime will capture less than 5% of Node.js production deployments by end of 2027
Active Resolves: 2027-12-31
(624d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
Verifiable Credentials will see first Fortune 500 production deployment for employee identity by Q2 2027
Active Resolves: 2027-06-30
(440d left)
Security By: Pragma Research Team
Agent-mediated commerce transactions will represent less than 0.1% of global e-commerce by end of 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Commerce By: Pragma Research Team
GPT-4o function calling reliability will exceed 99% for simple schemas by Q3 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-09-30
(167d left)
AI/ML By: Pragma Research Team
At least one major prediction market platform will integrate DID-based identity by end of 2027
Active Resolves: 2027-12-31
(624d left)
Security By: Pragma Research Team
Stripe Connect will process more than $100B in marketplace volume in 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Commerce By: Pragma Research Team
Visa TAP will have zero public production integrations by Q2 2027
Active Resolves: 2027-06-30
(440d left)
Standards By: Pragma Research Team
Supabase Edge Functions cold start will drop below 100ms by end of 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
D3.js will remain the dominant web visualization library through 2027 despite Observable Plot growth
Active Resolves: 2027-12-31
(624d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
n8n will surpass Zapier in self-hosted enterprise deployments by Q4 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
AP2 Protocol will achieve fewer than 50 production integrations by end of 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Standards By: Pragma Research Team
Pagefind will become the default search solution for 3+ major static site generators by end of 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
Infrastructure By: Pragma Research Team
Claude will maintain the leading position in tool use accuracy benchmarks through 2026
Active Resolves: 2026-12-31
(259d left)
AI/ML By: Pragma Research Team
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Accuracy Leaderboard
| # | Contributor | Accuracy | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 3 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 4 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 5 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 6 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 7 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 8 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 9 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 10 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 11 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 12 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 13 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 14 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 15 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 16 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 17 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 18 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 19 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
| 20 | Pragma Research Team | 0.0% | 1 |
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