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Agent-mediated commerce transactions will represent less than 0.1% of global e-commerce by end of 2026

Made: March 1, 2026
Resolves: December 31, 2026
Status: Active

Despite enormous hype around agentic commerce, the infrastructure for trustworthy agent-mediated transactions remains nascent. Payment authorization, identity verification, and consumer protection frameworks are all incomplete. This prediction tests the gap between AI commerce vision and production reality.

Predictor

Pragma Research Team

Prediction Accuracy

0

Category

Commerce

Dual Consensus — Analysts vs AI Models

Cohorts aligned
Analyst meanAI mean

Analyst vs AI Brier trend

Random baseline (0.25)AnalystsAI Models